Friday, October 5, 2012

You have been lied to...

In today's entry, we will be breaking down the walls of ignorance.
If you like those walls- stop here. Cause they are fixing to come crashing down.
It is so much worse than years past- and it was bad then… revisions made to economic, foreign, and domestic policy, that are made to shift opinion for an election season, presidential or otherwise, are becoming the new norm.

If you saw the jobs numbers today, let me assure you. You were lied to. You were lied to when they said they were 4-5 %. But believe me… you are really being lied to now. 

And they lie to you because they think you aren’t smart enough to figure out their little ploys. But its not a matter of being smart.
They think you are ignorant. And if you are… you’ll eat it up with a spoon and say, “Ohhh… I see… now I know.” 

Throw off the morning stink of ignorance and take the informed bath of knowledge. 

There are 3 lies you are told about this stuff. That’s right --lies. And if you don’t know these lies, you will believe whatever they say.
I find it totally ironic that one of the best articles I’ve ever read was written by a senior scholar at George Mason University and that is where Obama was touting the new numbers this morning. That’s just a funny little bit of coincidence. Those things happen, you know.

However the Jobs numbers today are no coincidence. I’ve been aware that a drop in the numbers was coming as we got closer to election for years. It always happens. It always will happen until people figure it out and it stops working. It’s like Fast and Furious movies. (not the gun scandal- the actual movie).
When will they stop making them? When people stop going to see them! So Stop!

Okay, back to economics. And the lies. NOTE: these are lies- by omission. They are lies that they apply to data and then pass on to you as “the gospel”. They are anything but…

#1. The government knows how many people are unemployed.
Wrong. The truth: No one counts unemployed people.
They are based on STATISTICS. Like polling data. Fhewy! Manipulated data to say whatever those that are compiling them want them to say. Both sides do this. It is FAR too time consuming to count everyone. But they pass them off as exact measurements. And there are several ways they get the numbers. Each of which give you different numbers. When you ask employers how many jobs they “created” last month and then ask random people how many of them found or lost jobs you get 2 different stats.
Which one is right? Is either right? How do you know?
NEITHER OF THEM IS RIGHT! They are both estimates of the larger whole- which is dependent on so many other aspects of employment.

#2. More jobs means less unemployment.
Wrong. The truth: There is a number that is used and it is anywhere from 150,000 to 200,000. This range represents the number of people entering the workforce. Teens getting jobs, recent graduates, etc…  if we add 120,000 jobs… that means that the job community can’t keep up with job growth. (note the number of jobs that are being touted today as being created last month and apply it to this number—and consider what it really means. You are being lied to)
If we add 120,000… subtract that from lets say 175,000… and we lost 55,000 jobs. And yet somehow the unemployment rate came down .3 %?    -- you decide.

#3. Lower unemployment means fewer unemployed people.
Dead wrong. I cannot begin to tell you how wrong this is. This is the foundation lie that all others get their power from. If you believe this… its over.
This is the lie they count on you believing when you see that number with % behind it. They’re telling you what is good. “this is great news!”
Not it is not. By that rationale, even adding ONE job would be growth.
The numbers being touted today about last month’s job numbers were common “good” numbers in 1965. Almost 50 years ago. This is pathetic. This far down… we should be getting Job “BOOMS”, not job “Wheezing”. 

Everyone has been making a big deal about the unemployment rate being above 8% so long… and now, magically it is below 8% for the first time in over 40 months. And this happens 32 days before the election. Now they have people believing that as long as it is below 8% we are prospering. That is wrong. Anyone who remembers 87 cent a gallon gas knows what I’m talking about. 

Numbers can be manipulated to say whatever people want. Example 2+2=5. This is true if you take into account that large values of 2 can be added together to make 5 or more.  2.75 + 2.75 = 5.5 [see?]

It is not a matter of people either being employed or unemployed. It is FAR more complicated than that. There are retired people. What do we do with them? They are unemployed, but they cannot count toward the number. So they don’t.  They aren’t looking for work. They’ve done their work. 

People looking for work who are currently without work are --- unemployed.
People who stop looking for work who are currently without work are --- nonemployed. 

Nonemployed people are counted as retired people are counted, in the ‘Labor Force’.  They don’t count.
So the more people who give up looking for work… the lower that magic number % goes. 

And the less that number means.

Now a practical application to what I’m talking about…
Let’s say that  There are 10 people in the world and one employer. We won’t count him… just the workers. They are all employed by him. Then 5 lose their jobs. Unemployment is 50%.
Then 3 of them get their jobs back and the other 2 just stop looking. What’s the new unemployment rate? ZERO. 

I know what you are thinking. “that’s not right!”
Yeah… in a manner of speaking , you were lied to. 

The number you saw today is not a sign that things are good. Its textbook politics.
The number you saw today is not growth.  It was a lie. Its typical statistics.
Politics and Statistics are coming together for a date-- and you are gonna pay the bill.